Vietnam’s economy begins recovering: int’l economists
“The worst has likely passed for Vietnam as well as the rest of the region,” said Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for Asia at ANZ in Singapore. “The focus now should be on assessing the strength of the recovery and how long it will take to return to potential growth.”
He added that the economy grew 3.9 percent in the first half from 3.1 percent in the first three months. “The pickup in growth in the second quarter in Vietnam was domestically based thanks to the fuel, transport and garment industries”, he said. He estimated that the GDP will grow more during the rest of 2009 as the fiscal stimulus plan continues.
International experts said that most countries have passed the depths of the crisis and those with strong domestic growth generators will benefit more and recover faster. “While Vietnam’s exports remain fairly lackluster, the economy is well supported by pro-growth government policies”, they said.
Some experts said that Vietnam, Indonesia, China and India, where growth remained positive amid the global slowdown, are examples of economies that have shown more resilience than other export-dependent nations because of domestic consumption.
Credit Suisse Group AG last week raised its growth forecast for Vietnam, predicting the economy will expand 4 percent this year, from an earlier estimate of 2 percent.
Expectations of high inflation in Vietnam are constraining the government’s efforts to support growth by easing fiscal and monetary policy, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services said in a report on June 10.
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